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The state of climate change

Pramod K. Singh and Abhishek Nair
While Gujarat has done commendable work to reverse the effects of climate change, it is clearly not enough. “

You must take personal responsibility. You cannot change the circumstances, the seasons, or the wind, but you can change yourself. That is something you have charge of...” (Jim Rohn).

The inevitability of change cannot be disputed. But change does not have to come at a huge cost (read environmental cost) as we are learning here in Gujarat. The summers, for instance, are warmer than ever before increasing, thereby, the probability of extreme heat events. While rainfall patterns are not significantly heavier they still point to, what environmentalists call, “heavy rainfall events” being on the upswing. Rather eerily, the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) predict an augmentation in the intensity of cyclonic activity in Gujarat. Other factual data too, are pretty grim.

Sample this: instances of floods have increased; the sea-level too has being rising at the rate of 0.33 mm/year, which is considered to be rapid sea-level rise.

The state of Gujarat, subject to the vagaries of climate change, also happens to be a culprit backed by rapid industrialization and push for economic growth. All this has, understandably, taken an unmitigated toll on humankind. Especially the vulnerable communities which are, ironically, the ones responsible for the least contribution to global warming.

There is no gainsaying that climate change impacts human life and the ecosystem and, thereby, the economy. Take, for instance, temperature changes that continue to affect both agriculture and livestock. A mere increase by a degree is known to reduce wheat yields by 4-5 million tons even after carbon fertilization.  Rising temperatures causing thermal heat stree is known to reduce milk yields.

Equally alarming are some of the other effects of climate change. Coral bleaching, occurring over the last two decades along the sea surface thanks to temperatures having increased decade-wise by 0.116oC is doomed for worse fate. Soaring temperatures have stunted the heights of mangroves in the regions of Kutch and Jamnagar.

 Human life too stands threatened thanks to increased salinity along the coastal ribbon as the fallout of rising sea-levels courtesy of global warming. In the villages of Dabdi of Valsa and Kaladra located along the Narmada estuary the sea has been observed to move inland up to an alarming 80 metres.

Burgeoning temperatures – having expanded the transmission window of mosquitoes by up to 9-12 months every year – continue to goad malaria incidence rates every year, not to mention heat-related deaths.

This is not to say that the state hasn’t done its bit to counter the ill effects of climate change. Its work on minimizing carbon emissions by taking the lead in CDM (Clean Development Mechanisms) projects is commendable despite being a gargantuan emitter of greenhouse gases. The state has taken visible strides in promoting wind and biomass based green energy generation while encouraging vehicle owners to switch to cleaner fuel options like CNG, LPG, and bio-fuels. The Gujarat Cleaner Production Centre has been pushing technology towards a more efficient use of raw material, energy and water resources.

 Yet more needs to be done, especially for the poor and vulnerable populations that are most susceptible to climate change. Initiatives need to be undertaken on priority basis to build the resilience and adaptability (to global warming and climate change) of such communities through scientific, indigenous knowledge and through evidence-based decisions. A start could be made by conducting scoping studies for first hand insight into communities and ecosystems that are vulnerable to climate change. This could be followed up by research and pilot studies that scalable.

 E-mail ids:

(i) Pramod K. Singh, Associate Professor, Institute of Rural Management, Anand; E-mail: pramod@irma.ac.in;

(ii) Abhishek Nair, Research Associate, Institute of Rural Management, Anand; E-mail: abhishek@irma.ac.in